Progress in China's Local Green and Low-Carbon Transition
Chinese
Nov 2025
Working Paper
LOGIC Quantitative Modeling Tools Subnational Climate Action
Summary:
This working paper tracks and analyzes green transition progress across China's provinces using two complementary analytical frameworks. The first is the Regional Green and Low-Carbon Transition Index (LOGIC), which quantifies and benchmarks provincial transition performance. The second is a 30-province EPS modeling framework, which simulates long-term emission pathways and identifies differentiated decarbonization strategies. The analysis finds that all provinces are expected to achieve carbon peaking before 2030, with the number of provinces achieving "strong decoupling" of economic growth from emissions continuing to increase. It identifies four provincial typologies based on transition score and growth rate, and provides in-depth case studies of four representative provinces (Shanxi, Guangdong, Hainan, and Jiangxi), highlighting how resource endowments, industrial structure, and development stage shape distinct transition pathways.
Suggested citation:
Institute for Global Decarbonization Progress (iGDP). (2025). Progress in China's Local Green Transition (Working Paper). Beijing: iGDP. November 2025.
