China's Renewable Ambition
Provincial Pathways Toward a Renewable Powerhouse
English
Nov 2025
Report Summary
Energy Transition Power Subnational Climate Action
Summary:
This report analyzes provincial-level pathways for achieving China's national target of 3.6 TW of installed solar and wind capacity by 2035. It integrates EPS 30-province modeling results, provincial renewable target tracking, and policy review to identify key regional drivers. It projects solar and wind capacity additions under a Dual Carbon Scenario, compares these projections against existing provincial targets (many of which have already been met years ahead of schedule), and analyzes electricity demand growth patterns to identify supply-demand imbalances. It finds that ten provinces—led by Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Jiangsu, Henan, and Guangdong—will account for over half of capacity additions, with solar PV dominating growth. The analysis highlights the critical enabling roles of transmission infrastructure and electricity market reform in sustaining rapid renewable expansion.
Suggested citation:
Li, Xindi. (2025). China's Renewable Ambition: Provincial Pathways Toward a Renewable Powerhouse (Report Summary). Beijing: iGDP. November 2025.
