Expanding carbon intensity to include industrial process emissions strengthens longer-term decarbonization, argue Hu Min, Li Xindi, and Yang Li.

This report tracks and quantitatively assesses the green and low-carbon transition of 30 Chinese provincial-level regions over the decade from 2013 to 2022 using the Subnational Low-Carbon and Green Index for China (Subnational LOGIC), which encompasses 26 indicators across four categories: carbon productivity; carbon emissions (covering energy, power, industry, buildings, transport, and agriculture); environmental conditions and land use; and policy systems and public participation. The analysis employs multiple classification frameworks—economic-geographic regions, economic development stages (Pioneer, Leading, Catching-Up, and Developing Economies), national major regional strategies, and energy development positioning—to identify structural divergences in transition patterns. It finds that scores improved across all provinces, with carbon productivity, energy, and power showing nationwide progress while transport, buildings, and industry remain key frontiers for deep decarbonization. The report also presents in-depth case studies of Guangdong, Jiangxi, Shanxi, and Hainan to examine differentiated transition pathways across economic development stages.

Hainan has built and put into operation 37 battery-swapping stations for heavy-duty trucks, providing basic coverage of the island’s main highways and key industrial parks, thereby effectively advancing the transition of new-energy heavy-duty trucks from pilot projects in typical application scenarios to full-scale electrification across the region.

This report assesses the low-carbon transition pathway for Tianjin Municipality under China's carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, using the Energy Policy Simulator (EPS) model to quantify energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission trajectories to 2060. The methodology employs a scenario-based quantitative modeling framework, constructing three scenarios—a 2020 Policy Freeze scenario, a Policy scenario, and a Dual Carbon scenario—to evaluate the emission reduction effects of different policy combinations. The EPS Tianjin 2024 model covers five core sectors: power, industry, transport, buildings, and land use and forestry, capturing inter-sectoral linkages and mitigation potentials. The analysis identifies critical areas and priority policies for achieving carbon neutrality, assesses investment requirements, and evaluates the economic and employment impacts of the transition.

This paper analyzes the long-term impact of the European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on China's steel industry, with a focus on quantifying the resulting cost burden and identifying the key drivers and mitigating factors. The methodology employs a dynamic, process-level scenario-based model (CBAM-CST) that links three steel production routes (BF-BOF, DRI-EAF, and Scrap-EAF) with their emission intensities, energy transition pathways, carbon pricing systems (EU ETS and China's national carbon market), and trade flows through 2050. The model integrates three sub-modules—inflation and exchange rates, CBAM certificate cost calculation, and China's steel low-carbon transformation—to simulate CBAM obligations across multiple scenarios (BAU, DCS, and NES), with sensitivity analyses examining the effects of EU ETS carbon prices, domestic carbon market inclusion, electricity decarbonization, and hydrogen utilization on total certificate costs.

This policy brief analyzes the green and low-carbon development content in provincial-level recommendations for China's 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030). It systematically reviews 30 provincial documents to identify key "dual-carbon" (carbon peaking and carbon neutrality) priorities, including carbon peaking timelines, carbon emissions dual-control systems, new energy system construction, sectoral transitions (industry, transport, buildings, agriculture), and the deployment of zero-carbon parks, zero-carbon factories, and climate adaptation measures. The analysis is based on a systematic review and comparative analysis of provincial policy texts, categorizing and quantifying the frequency and content of policy keywords to identify regional patterns, alignment with national priorities, and local-level implementation focuses.