Summary:

This report provides a detailed analysis of China's updated Nationally Determined Contribution submitted in October 2021, comparing it with the 2015 NDC and examining its implications for domestic climate governance. It finds that the 2021 NDC formalizes China's “dual carbon” goals—peaking emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality before 2060—and incorporates more detailed and comprehensive cross‑sectoral and sector‑specific policies than its predecessor. The report reviews progress on the 2015 NDC targets, noting that most quantitative goals were met ahead of schedule, and assesses how the newly established “1+N” policy framework provides institutional and regulatory backing for implementation. It also discusses China's evolving role in global climate governance, the challenges posed by the 2021 power shortages, and the critical importance of subnational and private sector action. While current policies are insufficient for the 1.5°C goal and even for 2060 neutrality, more ambitious pathways—including deeper decarbonization and early adoption of emerging technologies—could enable China to reach carbon neutrality by 2050.

Suggested citation:

Chen Meian, Yang Li, Hu Min. (2022). Understanding China's 2021 NDC. Report. Beijing: innovative Green Development Program (iGDP).

License:

Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0)