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Medium and Long-Term Outlook for Low Carbon Transition in Shandong
Developing a Dual-Carbon Pathway Using EPS Modeling

Chinese

DEC 2025

Report Summary

Energy Transition Quantitative Modeling Tools Subnational Climate Action

Summary:
This report analyzes the long-term low-carbon transition pathway for Shandong Province under China's carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. It employs the Energy Policy Simulator (EPS) model to quantify energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission trajectories to 2060 across three scenarios—a 2020 Policy Freeze scenario, a Policy scenario, and a Dual Carbon scenario. The model covers five core sectors: power, industry, transport, buildings, and land use and forestry. The analysis identifies critical areas and priority policies for achieving carbon neutrality, assesses investment requirements, and evaluates the economic and employment impacts of the transition, providing a quantitative evidence base for provincial policymaking.
Suggested citation:
Institute for Global Decarbonization Progress (iGDP) & Shandong University of Finance and Economics, China International School of Low Carbon. (2025). Medium- and Long-Term Outlook for Low-Carbon Transition in Shandong—Developing a Dual-Carbon Pathway Using EPS Modeling (Report Summary). Beijing: iGDP; Shandong University of Finance and Economics. November 2025.
Medium and Long-Term Outlook for Low Carbon Transition in Shandong