Home
/
Insights
/
Medium and Long-Term Outlook for Low Carbon Transition in Hainan Using EPS Modeling
Medium and Long-Term Outlook for Low Carbon Transition in Hainan Using EPS Modeling
Chinese
Nov 2025
Report Summary
Energy Transition Quantitative Modeling Tools Subnational Climate Action
Summary:
This report analyzes the low-carbon transition pathway for Hainan Province, which benefits from abundant non-fossil energy resources but faces unique challenges from the development of its Free Trade Port and its island geography. It employs the Energy Policy Simulator (EPS) model to quantify energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission trajectories to 2060 across three scenarios, covering power, industry, transport, buildings, and land use sectors. The analysis identifies priority policy measures by phase—including nuclear power deployment, building energy efficiency standards, industrial electrification, renewable power integration, and aviation and shipping fuel alternatives—and assesses investment requirements and macroeconomic impacts. It provides differentiated policy recommendations tailored to Hainan's "clean energy island" and "low-carbon island" development strategy.
Suggested citation:
Song Manjiao, Wu Dan, Yang Peng, Li Xindi, Yuan Yating, Zhang Ming, & Xu Yang. (2025). Medium- and Long-Term Outlook for Low-Carbon Transition in Hainan—Using EPS Modeling (Report Summary). Beijing: Institute for Global Decarbonization Progress (iGDP). November 2025.
