This report analyzes the European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) as it transitions from its preparatory phase to full implementation, focusing on three critical policy areas with direct implications for Chinese exporters: the recognition of carbon prices paid in producing countries, the potential conditional acceptance of international carbon credits, and the technical alignment between CBAM and the EU ETS free allowance benchmarks. The methodology combines systematic legal review of the CBAM Regulation and its implementing acts with practical policy assessment, drawing on official EU legislative documents, technical studies from the Joint Research Centre (JRC) and the European University Institute (EUI), and expert reports from adelphi and the Climate Club. The research examines the regulatory texts, identifies remaining uncertainties, and derives forward-looking policy recommendations for Chinese authorities and enterprises.

This paper analyzes the long-term impact of the European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on China's steel industry, with a focus on quantifying the resulting cost burden and identifying the key drivers and mitigating factors. The methodology employs a dynamic, process-level scenario-based model (CBAM-CST) that links three steel production routes (BF-BOF, DRI-EAF, and Scrap-EAF) with their emission intensities, energy transition pathways, carbon pricing systems (EU ETS and China's national carbon market), and trade flows through 2050. The model integrates three sub-modules—inflation and exchange rates, CBAM certificate cost calculation, and China's steel low-carbon transformation—to simulate CBAM obligations across multiple scenarios (BAU, DCS, and NES), with sensitivity analyses examining the effects of EU ETS carbon prices, domestic carbon market inclusion, electricity decarbonization, and hydrogen utilization on total certificate costs.

This report presents the CBAM-CST model, a quantitative tool developed to analyze the long-term interaction between the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and China's steel industry decarbonization. The model integrates three modules—CBAM cost calculation, China's steel low-carbon transformation, and inflation/exchange rates—to simulate CBAM certificate costs across multiple scenarios through 2050. It identifies EU ETS carbon price and Chinese steel carbon intensity as the primary cost drivers, and examines how low-carbon technologies (DRI-EAF, scrap-EAF), electricity decarbonization, and hydrogen adoption can reduce the CBAM burden. The analysis also evaluates the potential offset from China's domestic carbon market and provides technical support for China-EU policy dialogue and enterprise strategy formulation.

This report tracks and evaluates the "greenness" of public investment across 25 provinces from 2020 to 2024, using provincial major project lists as the basis for analysis. Using the Green and Low-Carbon Transition Industry Guidance Catalogue (2024) as the evaluation standard, it classifies projects as green or non-green and analyzes trends in green project shares, sectoral composition, and regional disparities. It also tracks coal power and high-energy-consuming projects. The analysis finds that green project shares have increased nationally but remain uneven across provinces and sectors, with renewables dominating green investment. It provides recommendations for integrating carbon assessment into project approval and strengthening dynamic management of major projects under the carbon dual-control framework.

This report analyzes the implications of the EU's New Battery Regulation (Regulation (EU) 2023/1542) for Guangdong Province's power battery recycling industry, focusing on three key regulatory requirements: carbon footprint disclosure, mandatory recycled content (lithium, cobalt, nickel, lead), and digital battery passports. It reviews Guangdong's current battery recycling industry status—including market size, recycling networks, enterprise capabilities, and policy framework—and identifies gaps between domestic practices and EU requirements. The methodology combines policy analysis, industry data collection, expert consultations, and gap analysis. It provides strategic recommendations for government and enterprises to enhance carbon footprint accounting, strengthen extended producer responsibility, and improve recycling technologies.

This report assesses the impact of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on Guangdong's export trade and industrial structure. It analyzes customs trade data to identify directly affected sectors, estimating potential cost implications through carbon emission and pricing calculations, and evaluating current policy and regulatory frameworks. The report aims to understand both immediate disruptions and longer-term structural pressures on the region, while proposing strategic recommendations for government and enterprise adaptation. These recommendations focus on carbon market development, footprint standards, green manufacturing upgrades, supply chain collaboration, and export market diversification.