Expanding carbon intensity to include industrial process emissions strengthens longer-term decarbonization, argue Hu Min, Li Xindi, and Yang Li.

This report tracks and quantitatively assesses the green and low-carbon transition of 30 Chinese provincial-level regions over the decade from 2013 to 2022 using the Subnational Low-Carbon and Green Index for China (Subnational LOGIC), which encompasses 26 indicators across four categories: carbon productivity; carbon emissions (covering energy, power, industry, buildings, transport, and agriculture); environmental conditions and land use; and policy systems and public participation. The analysis employs multiple classification frameworks—economic-geographic regions, economic development stages (Pioneer, Leading, Catching-Up, and Developing Economies), national major regional strategies, and energy development positioning—to identify structural divergences in transition patterns. It finds that scores improved across all provinces, with carbon productivity, energy, and power showing nationwide progress while transport, buildings, and industry remain key frontiers for deep decarbonization. The report also presents in-depth case studies of Guangdong, Jiangxi, Shanxi, and Hainan to examine differentiated transition pathways across economic development stages.

This policy brief analyzes the green and low-carbon development content in provincial-level recommendations for China's 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030). It systematically reviews 30 provincial documents to identify key "dual-carbon" (carbon peaking and carbon neutrality) priorities, including carbon peaking timelines, carbon emissions dual-control systems, new energy system construction, sectoral transitions (industry, transport, buildings, agriculture), and the deployment of zero-carbon parks, zero-carbon factories, and climate adaptation measures. The analysis is based on a systematic review and comparative analysis of provincial policy texts, categorizing and quantifying the frequency and content of policy keywords to identify regional patterns, alignment with national priorities, and local-level implementation focuses.

As of January 2026, a total of 30 provincial-level administrative regions in China had released the full text of their “15th Five-Year Plan” proposals. iGDP found that while the policy statements regarding the priorities of green transition in each province showed a high degree of alignment with the national “15th Five-Year Plan” proposal, they also featured notable local highlights.

China is offering other Global South countries a viable way to discover a just transition pathway of their own.

This report provides a comprehensive overview of China's carbon emissions dual-control policy (controlling both total carbon emissions and carbon intensity), tracing its evolution from the energy consumption dual-control system. It explains the policy's rationale, phased objectives, key tasks, and supporting mechanisms through a structured question-and-answer format. The analysis synthesizes central policy documents from the State Council, NDRC, and MEE, and incorporates subnational case studies from Zhejiang, Guangzhou, and Hangzhou that have pioneered carbon budgeting and project-level carbon assessments. It also examines the policy's linkages with carbon markets, green certificate trading, and voluntary emission reduction mechanisms, offering a systematic reference for policymakers and researchers.