Summary:

This policy brief assesses China's progress toward its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets by comparing commitments from the 2015 and 2021 NDCs with outcomes reported in China's First Biennial Transparency Report (2023) and other official sources. It tracks progress across key areas including energy (non-fossil share, coal and oil consumption), industry (energy efficiency, "two high" project controls), transport (green transport systems, new energy vehicles), buildings (green building standards), agriculture, forestry, and waste. It finds that China has already met several 2030 targets ahead of schedule—including forest stock, wind and solar capacity, and new energy vehicle penetration—and provides an outlook for the upcoming 2035 NDC update.

Suggested citation:

Institute for Global Decarbonization Progress (iGDP). (2025). Assessing China's NDC Progress—Insights from the Biennial Transparency Report (Policy Brief). Beijing: iGDP. August 2025.

License:

Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0)