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Medium and Long-Term Outlook for Low Carbon Transition in Guangdong Using EPS Modeling

Chinese

Sept 2025

Report Summary

Energy Transition Quantitative Modeling Tools Subnational Climate Action

Summary:
This report analyzes the low-carbon transition pathway for Guangdong Province, China's largest economy and a major energy consumer. It employs the Energy Policy Simulator (EPS) model to quantify energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission trajectories to 2060 across three scenarios—a 2020 Policy Freeze scenario, a Policy scenario, and a Dual Carbon scenario. The model covers power, industry, transport, buildings, and land use sectors. The analysis identifies Guangdong's reliance on nuclear power, natural gas, and imported electricity; examines the critical role of renewable power expansion (especially offshore wind) and CCUS deployment; and highlights the challenge posed by rising fluorinated gas emissions. It provides phased policy recommendations for achieving carbon neutrality by 2060.
Suggested citation:
Li Xindi, Liu Zhen, Liao Cuiping, Huang Ying, Xie Pengcheng, Yang Peng, Yuan Yating, Song Manjiao, Zhu Tongxin, Xi Xi, Chen Meian, & Hu Min. (2025). Medium- and Long-Term Outlook for Low-Carbon Transition in Guangdong—Using EPS Modeling (Report Summary). Beijing: Institute for Global Decarbonization Progress (iGDP). September 2025
Medium and Long-Term Outlook for Low Carbon Transition in Guangdong Using EPS Modeling