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Increasing Renewable Energy Installed Capacity Targets in 30 Provinces in China in the 15th Five-Year Plan Period
Increasing Renewable Energy Installed Capacity Targets in 30 Provinces in China in the 15th Five-Year Plan Period
Chinese
Sept 2025
Working Paper
Energy Transition Power Quantitative Modeling Tools Subnational Climate Action
Summary:
This working paper analyzes the potential for provinces to raise their renewable energy capacity targets for 2030 during China's 15th Five-Year Plan period. It reviews provincial progress toward existing 2025 and 2030 solar and wind targets, identifying provinces that have already met or exceeded their goals years ahead of schedule. Using the 30-province EPS base model, it projects electricity demand growth and renewable capacity additions under a Dual Carbon Scenario, compares these projections against existing provincial targets, and identifies provinces with significant upside potential. It also discusses the critical enabling conditions—transmission infrastructure, electricity market reform, and flexibility resources—needed to support continued renewable expansion.
Suggested citation:
Li, Xindi & Liu, Jingning. (2025). Provincial 15th Five-Year Plan Renewable Energy Target and Potential Evaluation (Working Paper). Beijing: Institute for Global Decarbonization Progress (iGDP). September 2025.
