{"id":3095,"date":"2024-11-14T13:29:24","date_gmt":"2024-11-14T05:29:24","guid":{"rendered":"\/?post_type=insight&#038;p=3095"},"modified":"2026-08-14T13:40:43","modified_gmt":"2026-08-14T05:40:43","slug":"china-province-by-province-carbon-neutrality-roadmap-analysis-challenges-and-opportunities","status":"publish","type":"insight","link":"https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/insights\/china-province-by-province-carbon-neutrality-roadmap-analysis-challenges-and-opportunities\/","title":{"rendered":"China Province-by-Province Carbon Neutrality Roadmap Analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"3095\" class=\"elementor elementor-3095\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-deaa080 elementor-section-full_width elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"deaa080\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-no\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-db35338\" data-id=\"db35338\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9e88da8 elementor-widget elementor-widget-igdp_insight_detail_hero\" data-id=\"9e88da8\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"igdp_insight_detail_hero.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"row-report1\">\n\t\t<div class=\"wp\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"cur cur1\">\n\t\t<a href=\"\/\">Home<\/a>\n\t\t<i>\/<\/i>\n\t\t<a href=\"\/insights\/\">Insights<\/a>\n\t\t<i>\/<\/i>\n\t\t<span>China Province-by-Province Carbon Neutrality Roadmap Analysis<\/span>\n\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"m-report1 wow fadeInUp\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"txt\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"inner\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"tit\">China Province-by-Province Carbon Neutrality Roadmap Analysis<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"subtit\">Challenges and Opportunities<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"line\"><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"desc\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p style=\"background-image: url(\/en\/wp-content\/themes\/MyBasicTheme\/images\/igdp\/product\/icon3.svg);\">Chinese<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p style=\"background-image: url(\/en\/wp-content\/themes\/MyBasicTheme\/images\/igdp\/product\/icon4.svg);\">NOV 2024<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p style=\"background-image: url(\/en\/wp-content\/themes\/MyBasicTheme\/images\/igdp\/product\/icon5.svg);\">Working Paper<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p style=\"background-image: url(\/en\/wp-content\/themes\/MyBasicTheme\/images\/igdp\/product\/icon6.svg);\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"span\">Climate Governance<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"span\">Quantitative Modeling Tools<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"span\">Subnational Climate Action<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"desc2\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"span2\">Summary:<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"span3\">This working paper analyzes provincial-level carbon neutrality pathways across 30 Chinese provinces using the Energy Policy Simulator (EPS) model. It develops two scenarios\u2014a Policy Scenario reflecting the &quot;1+N&quot; policy framework, and a Dual Carbon Scenario aligned with 2060 carbon neutrality\u2014to project emissions trajectories, sectoral peak years, and decarbonization potentials. The analysis finds that all provinces can peak CO\u2082 emissions before 2030 under current policies, with industry peaking first, while transportation and buildings peak later depending on power sector decarbonization. It identifies significant variation in emissions reduction potential across provinces for high-emitting industries (cement, steel, non-ferrous, chemicals) and total GHG emissions, and highlights that industrial electrification and renewable power expansion are the most effective mitigation policies through 2060.<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"desc2\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"span2\">Suggested citation:<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"span3\">China Province-by-Province Carbon Neutrality Roadmap Analysis: Challenges and Opportunities. AUG 2026. iGDP Insight.<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"desc2\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"span2\">License:<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"span3\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\" class=\"link\">Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0)<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"igdp-report-download-buttons\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024-11-IGDP-Policy-Brief-EN-China-Province-by-Province-Carbon-Neutrality-Roadmap-Analysis-Challenges-and-Opportunities.pdf\" class=\"g-btnr1\"><span style=\"background-image: url(\/en\/wp-content\/themes\/MyBasicTheme\/images\/igdp\/product\/icon7.svg);\">download zh<\/span><\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"picbox\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"pic\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/Screenshot-2026-08-12-at-9.53.54-PM.jpg\" alt=\"China Province-by-Province Carbon Neutrality Roadmap Analysis\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-a2a062f elementor-section-full_width elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"a2a062f\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-no\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-77f3eac\" data-id=\"77f3eac\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3e12771 elementor-widget elementor-widget-igdp_insight_detail_related\" data-id=\"3e12771\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"igdp_insight_detail_related.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"row-report4\" id=\"page09\">\n\t\t<div class=\"wp\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"g-titr1 wow fadeInUp\">Related<\/div>\n\t\t\t<ul class=\"ul-report4 wow fadeInUp\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/chinas-new-carbon-intensity-measure-has-not-changed-its-climate-pledges\/\" class=\"con\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"txt\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"tit\">China\u2019s New Carbon-Intensity Measure Has Not Changed Its Climate Pledges<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"desc\">Expanding carbon intensity to include industrial process emissions strengthens longer-term decarbonization, argue Hu Min, Li Xindi, and Yang Li.<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"span1\">Op-ed<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"date\">AUG 2026<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"picbox\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"pic\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"768\" height=\"512\" src=\"https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/dialogue-earth-768x512.jpg\" class=\"attachment-medium_large size-medium_large wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/dialogue-earth-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/dialogue-earth-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/dialogue-earth-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/dialogue-earth-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/dialogue-earth.jpg 1800w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" \/><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"\/en\/insights\/china-carbon-neutrality-tracker-2025-annual-report-green-and-low-carbon-transition-in-chinas-provincial-level-regions\/\" class=\"con\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"txt\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"tit\">China Carbon Neutrality Tracker 2025 Annual Report<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"desc\">This report tracks and quantitatively assesses the green and low-carbon transition of 30 Chinese provincial-level regions over the decade from 2013 to 2022 using the Subnational Low-Carbon and Green Index for China (Subnational LOGIC), which encompasses 26 indicators across four categories: carbon productivity; carbon emissions (covering energy, power, industry, buildings, transport, and agriculture); environmental conditions and land use; and policy systems and public participation. The analysis employs multiple classification frameworks\u2014economic-geographic regions, economic development stages (Pioneer, Leading, Catching-Up, and Developing Economies), national major regional strategies, and energy development positioning\u2014to identify structural divergences in transition patterns. It finds that scores improved across all provinces, with carbon productivity, energy, and power showing nationwide progress while transport, buildings, and industry remain key frontiers for deep decarbonization. The report also presents in-depth case studies of Guangdong, Jiangxi, Shanxi, and Hainan to examine differentiated transition pathways across economic development stages.<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"span1\">Report<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"date\">JUN 2026<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"picbox\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"pic\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"768\" height=\"1082\" src=\"https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/Screenshot-2026-08-07-at-1.42.45-PM-768x1082.jpg\" class=\"attachment-medium_large size-medium_large wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/Screenshot-2026-08-07-at-1.42.45-PM-768x1082.jpg 768w, https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/Screenshot-2026-08-07-at-1.42.45-PM-213x300.jpg 213w, https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/Screenshot-2026-08-07-at-1.42.45-PM-727x1024.jpg 727w, https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/Screenshot-2026-08-07-at-1.42.45-PM-1090x1536.jpg 1090w, https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/Screenshot-2026-08-07-at-1.42.45-PM.jpg 1124w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" \/><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.zgjtb.com\/zhuanti\/2026-05\/06\/content_515948.html\" class=\"con\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"txt\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"tit\">Hainan&#8217;s Model for Promoting the Adoption of Battery-Swap Heavy-Duty Trucks<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"desc\">Hainan has built and put into operation 37 battery-swapping stations for heavy-duty trucks, providing basic coverage of the island\u2019s main highways and key industrial parks, thereby effectively advancing the transition of new-energy heavy-duty trucks from pilot projects in typical application scenarios to full-scale electrification across the region.<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"span1\">Op-ed<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"date\">MAY 2026<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"picbox\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"pic\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"768\" height=\"512\" src=\"https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/edwin-rodriguez-UeUc2ei0GOw-unsplash-768x512.jpg\" class=\"attachment-medium_large size-medium_large wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/edwin-rodriguez-UeUc2ei0GOw-unsplash-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/edwin-rodriguez-UeUc2ei0GOw-unsplash-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/edwin-rodriguez-UeUc2ei0GOw-unsplash-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/edwin-rodriguez-UeUc2ei0GOw-unsplash-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/edwin-rodriguez-UeUc2ei0GOw-unsplash-2048x1365.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" \/><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"\/en\/insights\/medium-and-long-term-outlook-for-low-carbon-transition-in-tianjin-using-eps-modeling\/\" class=\"con\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"txt\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"tit\">Medium and Long Term Outlook for Low Carbon Transition in Tianjin Using EPS Modeling<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"desc\">This report assesses the low-carbon transition pathway for Tianjin Municipality under China&#039;s carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, using the Energy Policy Simulator (EPS) model to quantify energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission trajectories to 2060. The methodology employs a scenario-based quantitative modeling framework, constructing three scenarios\u2014a 2020 Policy Freeze scenario, a Policy scenario, and a Dual Carbon scenario\u2014to evaluate the emission reduction effects of different policy combinations. The EPS Tianjin 2024 model covers five core sectors: power, industry, transport, buildings, and land use and forestry, capturing inter-sectoral linkages and mitigation potentials. The analysis identifies critical areas and priority policies for achieving carbon neutrality, assesses investment requirements, and evaluates the economic and employment impacts of the transition.<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"span1\">Report Summary<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"date\">APR 2026<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"picbox\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"pic\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"768\" height=\"1091\" src=\"https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/Screenshot-2026-08-11-at-9.42.22-PM-768x1091.jpg\" class=\"attachment-medium_large size-medium_large wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/Screenshot-2026-08-11-at-9.42.22-PM-768x1091.jpg 768w, https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/Screenshot-2026-08-11-at-9.42.22-PM-211x300.jpg 211w, https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/Screenshot-2026-08-11-at-9.42.22-PM-721x1024.jpg 721w, https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/Screenshot-2026-08-11-at-9.42.22-PM-1082x1536.jpg 1082w, https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/Screenshot-2026-08-11-at-9.42.22-PM.jpg 1128w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" \/><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"\/en\/insights\/quantifying-the-long-term-impact-of-the-carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism-on-the-chinese-steel-industry\/\" class=\"con\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"txt\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"tit\">Quantifying the Long-term Impact of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on the Chinese Steel Industry<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"desc\">This paper analyzes the long-term impact of the European Union&#039;s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on China&#039;s steel industry, with a focus on quantifying the resulting cost burden and identifying the key drivers and mitigating factors. The methodology employs a dynamic, process-level scenario-based model (CBAM-CST) that links three steel production routes (BF-BOF, DRI-EAF, and Scrap-EAF) with their emission intensities, energy transition pathways, carbon pricing systems (EU ETS and China&#039;s national carbon market), and trade flows through 2050. The model integrates three sub-modules\u2014inflation and exchange rates, CBAM certificate cost calculation, and China&#039;s steel low-carbon transformation\u2014to simulate CBAM obligations across multiple scenarios (BAU, DCS, and NES), with sensitivity analyses examining the effects of EU ETS carbon prices, domestic carbon market inclusion, electricity decarbonization, and hydrogen utilization on total certificate costs.<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"span1\">Academic Journal Article<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"date\">MAR 2026<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"picbox\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"pic\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"768\" height=\"1005\" src=\"https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/Screenshot-2026-08-12-at-6.38.25-PM-768x1005.jpg\" class=\"attachment-medium_large size-medium_large wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/Screenshot-2026-08-12-at-6.38.25-PM-768x1005.jpg 768w, https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/Screenshot-2026-08-12-at-6.38.25-PM-229x300.jpg 229w, https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/Screenshot-2026-08-12-at-6.38.25-PM-783x1024.jpg 783w, https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/Screenshot-2026-08-12-at-6.38.25-PM-1174x1536.jpg 1174w, https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/Screenshot-2026-08-12-at-6.38.25-PM.jpg 1220w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" \/><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"\/en\/insights\/provincial-15th-five-year-plan-recommendations-dual-carbon-keywords\/\" class=\"con\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"txt\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"tit\">Provincial &#8220;15th Five-Year Plan&#8221; Recommendations: Dual-Carbon Keywords<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"desc\">This policy brief analyzes the green and low-carbon development content in provincial-level recommendations for China&#039;s 15th Five-Year Plan (2026\u20132030). It systematically reviews 30 provincial documents to identify key &quot;dual-carbon&quot; (carbon peaking and carbon neutrality) priorities, including carbon peaking timelines, carbon emissions dual-control systems, new energy system construction, sectoral transitions (industry, transport, buildings, agriculture), and the deployment of zero-carbon parks, zero-carbon factories, and climate adaptation measures. The analysis is based on a systematic review and comparative analysis of provincial policy texts, categorizing and quantifying the frequency and content of policy keywords to identify regional patterns, alignment with national priorities, and local-level implementation focuses.<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"span1\">Policy Brief<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"date\">FEB 2026<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"picbox\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"pic\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"768\" height=\"1075\" src=\"https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/Screenshot-2026-08-12-at-7.45.32-PM-768x1075.jpg\" class=\"attachment-medium_large size-medium_large wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/Screenshot-2026-08-12-at-7.45.32-PM-768x1075.jpg 768w, https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/Screenshot-2026-08-12-at-7.45.32-PM-214x300.jpg 214w, https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/Screenshot-2026-08-12-at-7.45.32-PM-731x1024.jpg 731w, https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/Screenshot-2026-08-12-at-7.45.32-PM-1097x1536.jpg 1097w, https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/Screenshot-2026-08-12-at-7.45.32-PM.jpg 1134w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" \/><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/ul>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This working paper analyzes provincial-level carbon neutrality pathways across 30 Chinese provinces using the Energy Policy Simulator (EPS) model. It develops two scenarios\u2014a Policy Scenario reflecting the &#8220;1+N&#8221; policy framework, and a Dual Carbon Scenario aligned with 2060 carbon neutrality\u2014to project emissions trajectories, sectoral peak years, and decarbonization potentials. The analysis finds that all provinces can peak CO\u2082 emissions before 2030 under current policies, with industry peaking first, while transportation and buildings peak later depending on power sector decarbonization. It identifies significant variation in emissions reduction potential across provinces for high-emitting industries (cement, steel, non-ferrous, chemicals) and total GHG emissions, and highlights that industrial electrification and renewable power expansion are the most effective mitigation policies through 2060.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":2505,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"igdp_summary":"This working paper analyzes provincial-level carbon neutrality pathways across 30 Chinese provinces using the Energy Policy Simulator (EPS) model. It develops two scenarios\u2014a Policy Scenario reflecting the \"1+N\" policy framework, and a Dual Carbon Scenario aligned with 2060 carbon neutrality\u2014to project emissions trajectories, sectoral peak years, and decarbonization potentials. The analysis finds that all provinces can peak CO\u2082 emissions before 2030 under current policies, with industry peaking first, while transportation and buildings peak later depending on power sector decarbonization. It identifies significant variation in emissions reduction potential across provinces for high-emitting industries (cement, steel, non-ferrous, chemicals) and total GHG emissions, and highlights that industrial electrification and renewable power expansion are the most effective mitigation policies through 2060.","igdp_featured_media":2505,"igdp_download_file":1678,"igdp_external_url":"","igdp_key_info":"This working paper analyzes provincial-level carbon neutrality pathways across 30 Chinese provinces using the Energy Policy Simulator (EPS) model. It develops two scenarios\u2014a Policy Scenario reflecting the \"1+N\" policy framework, and a Dual Carbon Scenario aligned with 2060 carbon neutrality\u2014to project emissions trajectories, sectoral peak years, and decarbonization potentials. The analysis finds that all provinces can peak CO\u2082 emissions before 2030 under current policies, with industry peaking first, while transportation and buildings peak later depending on power sector decarbonization. It identifies significant variation in emissions reduction potential across provinces for high-emitting industries (cement, steel, non-ferrous, chemicals) and total GHG emissions, and highlights that industrial electrification and renewable power expansion are the most effective mitigation policies through 2060.","igdp_related_insights":[]},"insight_type":[49],"insight_region":[46],"igdp_topic":[146,159,150],"class_list":["post-3095","insight","type-insight","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","insight_type-working-paper","insight_region-china-subnational","igdp_topic-climate-governance","igdp_topic-quantitative-modeling-tools","igdp_topic-subnational-climate-action"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/insight\/3095","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/insight"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/insight"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/insight\/3095\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3101,"href":"https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/insight\/3095\/revisions\/3101"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2505"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3095"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"insight_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/insight_type?post=3095"},{"taxonomy":"insight_region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/insight_region?post=3095"},{"taxonomy":"igdp_topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/igdp_topic?post=3095"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}