{"id":2402,"date":"2026-03-12T18:26:46","date_gmt":"2026-03-12T10:26:46","guid":{"rendered":"\/?post_type=insight&#038;p=2402"},"modified":"2026-08-16T10:59:40","modified_gmt":"2026-08-16T02:59:40","slug":"quantifying-the-long-term-impact-of-the-carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism-on-the-chinese-steel-industry","status":"publish","type":"insight","link":"https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/insights\/quantifying-the-long-term-impact-of-the-carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism-on-the-chinese-steel-industry\/","title":{"rendered":"Quantifying the Long-term Impact of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on the Chinese Steel Industry"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"2402\" class=\"elementor elementor-2402\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-e56a671 elementor-section-full_width elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"e56a671\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-no\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-21dfa3f\" data-id=\"21dfa3f\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-cf4ef96 elementor-widget elementor-widget-igdp_insight_detail_hero\" data-id=\"cf4ef96\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"igdp_insight_detail_hero.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"row-report1\">\n\t\t<div class=\"wp\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"cur cur1\">\n\t\t<a href=\"\/\">Home<\/a>\n\t\t<i>\/<\/i>\n\t\t<a href=\"\/insights\/\">Insights<\/a>\n\t\t<i>\/<\/i>\n\t\t<span>Quantifying the Long-term Impact of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on the Chinese Steel Industry<\/span>\n\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"m-report1 wow fadeInUp\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"txt\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"inner\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"tit\">Quantifying the Long-term Impact of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on the Chinese Steel Industry<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"line\"><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"desc\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p style=\"background-image: url(\/en\/wp-content\/themes\/MyBasicTheme\/images\/igdp\/product\/icon3.svg);\">English<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p style=\"background-image: url(\/en\/wp-content\/themes\/MyBasicTheme\/images\/igdp\/product\/icon4.svg);\">March 2026<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p style=\"background-image: url(\/en\/wp-content\/themes\/MyBasicTheme\/images\/igdp\/product\/icon5.svg);\">Academic Journal Article<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p style=\"background-image: url(\/en\/wp-content\/themes\/MyBasicTheme\/images\/igdp\/product\/icon6.svg);\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"span\">Green Economics<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"span\">Industry<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"span\">Quantitative Modeling Tools<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"desc2\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"span2\">Summary:<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"span3\">This paper analyzes the long-term impact of the European Union&#039;s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on China&#039;s steel industry, with a focus on quantifying the resulting cost burden and identifying the key drivers and mitigating factors. The methodology employs a dynamic, process-level scenario-based model (CBAM-CST) that links three steel production routes (BF-BOF, DRI-EAF, and Scrap-EAF) with their emission intensities, energy transition pathways, carbon pricing systems (EU ETS and China&#039;s national carbon market), and trade flows through 2050. The model integrates three sub-modules\u2014inflation and exchange rates, CBAM certificate cost calculation, and China&#039;s steel low-carbon transformation\u2014to simulate CBAM obligations across multiple scenarios (BAU, DCS, and NES), with sensitivity analyses examining the effects of EU ETS carbon prices, domestic carbon market inclusion, electricity decarbonization, and hydrogen utilization on total certificate costs.<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"desc2\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"span2\">Suggested citation:<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"span3\">Lu, B., Liu, X., Hong, J., Mo, K., You, J., Niu, N., &amp; Wang, Z. (2026). Quantifying the long-term impact of carbon border adjustment mechanism on Chinese steel industry. iScience, *29*(3), 115089. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.isci.2026.115089<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"desc2\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"span2\">License:<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"span3\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\" class=\"link\">Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0)<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"igdp-report-download-buttons\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"\/?igdp-download=insight\" class=\"g-btnr1\"><span style=\"background-image: url(\/en\/wp-content\/themes\/MyBasicTheme\/images\/igdp\/product\/icon7.svg);\">download<\/span><\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"picbox\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"pic\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/Screenshot-2026-08-12-at-6.38.25-PM.jpg\" alt=\"Quantifying the Long-term Impact of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on the Chinese Steel Industry\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Home \/ Insights \/ Quantifying the Long-term Impact of t [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":2403,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"igdp_summary":"This paper analyzes the long-term impact of the European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on China's steel industry, with a focus on quantifying the resulting cost burden and identifying the key drivers and mitigating factors. The methodology employs a dynamic, process-level scenario-based model (CBAM-CST) that links three steel production routes (BF-BOF, DRI-EAF, and Scrap-EAF) with their emission intensities, energy transition pathways, carbon pricing systems (EU ETS and China's national carbon market), and trade flows through 2050. The model integrates three sub-modules\u2014inflation and exchange rates, CBAM certificate cost calculation, and China's steel low-carbon transformation\u2014to simulate CBAM obligations across multiple scenarios (BAU, DCS, and NES), with sensitivity analyses examining the effects of EU ETS carbon prices, domestic carbon market inclusion, electricity decarbonization, and hydrogen utilization on total certificate costs.","igdp_featured_media":0,"igdp_download_file":0,"igdp_external_url":"","igdp_key_info":"","igdp_related_insights":[]},"insight_type":[207],"insight_region":[47],"igdp_topic":[149,153,159],"class_list":["post-2402","insight","type-insight","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","insight_type-academic-journal-article","insight_region-international","igdp_topic-green-economics","igdp_topic-industry","igdp_topic-quantitative-modeling-tools"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/insight\/2402","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/insight"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/insight"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/insight\/2402\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3496,"href":"https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/insight\/2402\/revisions\/3496"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2403"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2402"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"insight_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/insight_type?post=2402"},{"taxonomy":"insight_region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/insight_region?post=2402"},{"taxonomy":"igdp_topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/igdptest.symbol365.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/igdp_topic?post=2402"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}